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Interview with Neil from Value Horse Method (VHM) -Betting Guide
How long have you been in the Horse racing and betting industry and what experience do you have using the Betting Exchanges?
I started betting seriously about 5 years ago, not long after Betfair got going. Essentially, I use the Betfair market as a probability indicator. Many academic studies have been carried out to determine the efficiency of the exchange market. What people should understand is that over the long term, there is no better indicator of the probability of an event taking place than the exchange market. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule, especially where human emotion is involved. Fear and greed should never be under-estimated, especially in in-running events.
Can you explain the best way to benefit from the Value Horse Method and do you still use it yourself?
I use the Value Horse Method every day I am betting, along with 2 or 3 other profitable betting and trading strategies I have picked up over the years. The best way to use it is the best way for you as there are really three alternative bets than you can take once you have determined that the value is there as a result of determining likely probabilities from the exchange prices. Although I have immense admiration for the “form reader” type bettor I prefer to base all of my betting on market determined probability and statistical analysis.
How much money on average can people who use VHM expect to make per week if used correctly?
This is a bit of a how long is a piece of string type question and it depends very much on how an individual has structured their bet. On average they could expect to find 4 or 5 horses in a day that represent good value but they could reduce their number of bets considerably if they only wanted to simply bet the exceptional value horses. Another option of course is to be betting almost continuously throughout the day at no risk but it can be hard work. It is very much a personality thing and has a lot to do with how a person regards risk. One thing that everybody should be well aware of is that the top bettors generally only make 10% return on investment in a year. It is pie in the sky to think that one can win every bet. All the good bettors that don’t get inside information are very clear that value has to be on their side. If they find a 5% edge in a bet they will simply try to turnover as much as they can to increase the final returns. If you only ever want to win with a bet, perhaps Celtic to beat Clyde would be a good bet!
Can you offer any advice, tips or secrets to making money on the betting exchanges?
My advice regarding betting on the exchanges is quite simple. Try to forget everything you ever thought you knew about horse racing as betting in this environment is a whole different ball game. The answer lies not in any evaluation of the horse but in a thorough understanding of how, when and possibly why a market will change. Understanding patterns of price movement is vital to making consistent money by trading on the exchanges. If you have a friend who has had any financial trading background I would suggest that you spend a day or two with them looking at Betfair prices and graphs. They will see lots that you don’t see.
Can you tell me a little about the Bet Calculator on the site?
It is a “simple” piece of kit that allows a punter to determine when the value is with them. It takes prices from bookmakers and the Betfair market to determine how valuable a bet is in terms of “If I were to take this bet 100 times with the efficient Betfair market determining probability, this would be my return on investment”.
Are there any specific staking plans you would advise using?
I like to keep things simple by betting at level stakes essentially because I am a bit lazy but I know bettors who have an edge who use the Kelly Staking Criteria or bet to a % of their bank.
Is there anything you would like to add?
I think the main thing people have to realise is that once they have found an edge in betting they should stick with it instead of continuously looking for something that will give them a 40% return on investment. Finding an edge isn’t too difficult. What is difficult is sticking with it after 4 or 5 losing bets and resisting the temptation to go looking for the next thing and the next.
The Value Place is a free site as from January 2006. It uses a complex mathematical formula to determine the chances of a horse placing. It is live data and is continuously refreshed in the 5 minutes prior to the off. It highlights perhaps better than any other site the examples of “love risk” and “risk aversion” that are even prevalent on the betting exchanges.
Find more Interviews
like this on www.laytheodds.com
